Saint Martin
Score moved 5 → 4 . “Record global heat and a strengthening El Niño put Saint Martin's coming wet season under close watch”
Global agencies report that August 2026 was the hottest month ever recorded worldwide as a powerful El Niño emerged, with Europe's heat also driving the second-hottest May on record. For Saint Martin, measured conditions over 9 July–6 October 2026 were warmer than normal at about +0.8°C, while rainfall ran roughly 18% above average in a window that is climatologically dry, so that figure carries little weight for the season ahead. The canonical El Niño signal for the island is drier weather, and with peak impact expected through June–October, the key question is whether the May–November wet season and November–January harvest deliver enough rain for agriculture and water storage.
252.3 mm vs 213.8 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran about 18% above the 1991–2020 normal, though this window falls in Saint Martin's climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the percentage is not a meaningful signal for the coming wet season.
29.08°C mean vs 28.26°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window ran about 0.8°C above normal, consistent with global reporting that August 2026 was the hottest on record worldwide as a strong El Niño emerged.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Saint Martin drier. Observed rainfall is running +18% — against the canonical response; local factors are dominating.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (18.1°, -64.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Saint Martin and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Peak El Niño impact falls in June–October, so late wet-season and harvest crops could face moisture stress if the canonical drying signal materialises despite the recent above-average rainfall reading.
Reservoir and cistern recharge depends on the May–November wet season, and a drier-than-normal El Niño pattern would likely tighten supplies during the December–April dry season.
Sustained heat increases heat stress risk, especially for outdoor workers and the elderly, while shifting rainfall patterns can affect vector-borne disease and water quality.
Hotter conditions raise cooling demand and electricity load, while any rainfall shortfall could reduce water availability for hydro or desalination-linked supply.
Warmer-than-normal sea and air temperatures may shift reef and pelagic fish distributions, potentially altering catch composition and nearshore fishing effort.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Saint Martin responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño coincided with record global heat and drier-than-normal conditions in parts of the Caribbean, adding pressure on water resources and crops.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño contributed to severe regional drought in the Caribbean, with low reservoir levels, water rationing and agricultural losses reported in several islands.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought pronounced drying and drought stress to the eastern Caribbean, straining water supplies and reducing crop yields across the region.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSEuropean heatwave drives world's second-hottest May on record
Record Global Heat, Strengthening El Niño Keep Saint Martin's Wet Season Outlook Uncertain
Global agencies report that August 2026 was the hottest month ever recorded worldwide as a powerful El Niño emerged, with Europe's heat also driving the second-hottest May on record. For Saint Martin,
August hottest month ever recorded globally as huge El Nino emerges
August was the hottest on record worldwide, agency says
El Nino effect: Challenges to adaptation and resilience
Nearby
Neighbouring countries