Sint Maarten
Score moved 6 → 5 (high impact → moderate impact). “Strong El Niño is steering storms away from the Caribbean — but it is also quietly drying Sint Maarten's rains”
Sint Maarten is sitting inside a strong El Niño, with the ONI at +2.16 for July–September 2026, and the canonical signal for the island is drier-than-normal conditions. Reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall about 6% below the 1991–2020 normal and mean temperatures 0.8°C above normal, a modest but consistent drying and warming during what is climatologically the dry season. Articles frame the same event as a hurricane-risk reducer for Caribbean travel while local reporting warns that Sint Maarten is trending hotter, drier and more extreme toward 2050 and 2100, so the main concern is the outlook for the coming wet-season rains rather than any anomaly already recorded.
197 mm vs 209.2 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 running about 6% below the 1991–2020 normal, a modest deficit during Sint Maarten's climatologically dry season when monthly totals are normally under 20 mm, so the more meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming wet-season rains.
News source29.03°C mean vs 28.21°C normal
Mean temperature for the same July–October window came in 0.8°C above normal, consistent with the strong El Niño (ONI +2.16) and with projections of a hotter, drier Sint Maarten by 2050 and 2100.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Sint Maarten drier. Observed rainfall is running -6% — too close to normal to call yet.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (18.0°, -63.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Sint Maarten and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Peak El Niño impact falls in the June–October window over the wet season, so farmers should expect below-normal rainfall to reduce soil moisture and raise irrigation needs through the November–January harvest.
A drier-than-normal El Niño signal, layered on a long-term drying trend, is likely to lower catchment yields and household cistern recharge, increasing reliance on desalination and trucked water.
Warmer, drier conditions favour heat stress, dehydration and vector-breeding around stored water, with possible nutrition impacts if local produce yields decline.
Hotter mean temperatures (+0.8°C) are expected to lift cooling demand and electricity load, while reduced rainfall may lower output from any rainwater-dependent systems.
Calmer hurricane-season seas may extend safe fishing days, but warmer-than-normal water can push pelagic species deeper or further offshore and stress nearshore reef habitat.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Sint Maarten responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño contributed to a quieter 2023 Atlantic hurricane season and drier-than-normal conditions across the Lesser Antilles, reinforcing the island's longer-term drying trend.
unsourced background2015-16
One of the strongest El Niño events on record coincided with severe regional drought across the Caribbean, with Sint Maarten reporting below-normal rainfall and elevated water-trucking demand.
unsourced background1997-98
A very strong El Niño suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity and brought notably dry conditions to the northeastern Caribbean, straining cisterns and small-holder water supplies in Sint Maarten.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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