Tokelau
Narrative updated. “Strong El Niño holds, but Tokelau's dry season rains already running 58% above normal”
A Pacific regional El Niño monitoring update issued on 22 September 2026 confirms a strong El Niño state, with the ONI at +2.16 for July–September 2026, well above the +0.5 threshold. For Tokelau this aligns with the canonical wet signal: measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 was 58% above the 1991–2020 normal, and mean temperature ran 0.7°C above normal, even though this window falls in the climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm. The agricultural calendar remains on schedule, with peak El Niño impacts expected during the November–March wet season, so attention should focus on the coming rains rather than the dry-season percentage.
594.9 mm vs 376 mm normal
Measured rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 was 58% above the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the canonical wet El Niño signal for Tokelau, though this window falls in the climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm.
News source28.69°C mean vs 28.04°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window ran 0.7°C above normal, a modest warming consistent with the strong El Niño state (ONI +2.16 for JAS 2026).
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Tokelau wetter. Observed rainfall is running +58% — in line with the canonical response.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-9.0°, -172.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Tokelau and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
No planting or harvest disruption reported so far, but the November–March wet peak could bring waterlogging and pest pressure to pulaka and coconut plots.
Above-normal dry-season rainfall has likely eased pressure on household rainwater tanks, though the coming wet season may bring both replenishment and contamination risks.
Warmer, wetter conditions are expected to raise the risk of mosquito-borne illness and waterborne disease, with heat stress a secondary concern.
Higher rainfall and cloud cover could reduce solar output for household photovoltaic systems, while warmer nights may slightly raise cooling demand.
Warmer-than-normal sea and air temperatures may shift nearshore reef fish and tuna distributions, with possible effects on subsistence catch and lagoon fishing.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Tokelau responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño contributed to wetter conditions and elevated sea levels across the northern Pacific, with minor impacts reported in Tokelau's outer atolls.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño produced above-average rainfall and warmer temperatures in Tokelau, affecting subsistence agriculture and household water storage.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought wetter-than-normal conditions to Tokelau, with reports of coastal erosion and freshwater lens disturbance across the atolls.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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