Tunisia
Score moved 2 → 3 . “El Niño's heat is already squeezing Tunisia's reservoirs and farms”
A strengthening El Niño, with UN forecasters flagging a possible return as early as May, is expected to amplify heat and supply shocks across North Africa, and Tunisia is already feeling the strain. Reporting from September 2026 describes a deepening water crisis as temperatures approach 50°C, even though reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall about 8% above the 1991–2020 normal. The wheat harvest and winter-rain calendar remain on schedule, but heat and reservoir stress are likely to shape autumn planting and irrigation decisions.
28 mm vs 26.1 mm normal
Reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall about 8% above the 1991–2020 normal, even as Tunisian reporting focuses on intensifying drought and reservoir stress.
News sourceThe reanalysis value for this window is more than four standard deviations from the 1991–2020 record, so we withhold it rather than publish a likely data artifact.
Articles report Tunisian temperatures approaching 50°C during the 2026 summer, consistent with a strong El Niño background rather than any near-average thermal signal.
News sourceThe wheat harvest (May–June) and the onset of winter rains (November–March) remain on the normal calendar, but heat and water stress during summer are likely to weigh on autumn sowing and irrigation-dependent crops.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (34.0°, 9.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Tunisia and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Wheat harvest and winter-rain timing remain on schedule, but heat and irrigation shortfalls are likely to stress autumn sowing and yields.
Reservoir and dam levels are under pressure as temperatures approach 50°C, deepening the reported water crisis despite a slightly wetter-than-normal July–October window.
Prolonged heat near 50°C raises risks of heat stress, dehydration and waterborne disease as supply quality declines.
Higher cooling demand during extreme heat is likely to lift electricity loads and strain grid capacity, particularly for pumped irrigation.
Warmer coastal waters and heat stress are expected to shift fish stocks and raise operating costs for Tunisia's Mediterranean fleet.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Tunisia responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions coincided with multi-year drought stress in Tunisia, with reporting highlighting shrinking dams and urban water cuts.
unsourced background2015-16
Strong El Niño contributed to below-average rainfall and reservoir depletion in Tunisia, intensifying irrigation restrictions.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record, associated with severe drought and crop losses across North Africa, including Tunisia.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSA record El Niño is poised to be this year's next big supply shock for the global economy
Tunisia water crisis deepens as temperatures approach 50°C
Weekend Weather Forecast for Joumine, Bizerte 70, Tunisia - The Weather Channel | weather.com
El Niño Heat Tightens Tunisia's Water Grip as Temperatures Near 50°C
A strengthening El Niño, with UN forecasters flagging a possible return as early as May, is expected to amplify heat and supply shocks across North Africa, and Tunisia is already feeling the strain. R
Super El Niño 2026 Threatens Record-Breaking Global Impacts - Grand Pinnacle Tribune
Nearby
Neighbouring countries