São Tomé and Príncipe
Narrative updated. “Record global heat, but São Tomé's own dry season is tracking close to normal”
Global temperature records keep falling, with the hottest August and second-warmest March on record, and commentary warning of a possible "Super El Niño" through 2026. For São Tomé and Príncipe, however, the measured signal is muted: rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 came in about 20% below the 1991–2020 normal, but that window is the climatological dry season, when totals are normally under 20 mm and percentage anomalies carry little weight. Mean temperature over the same period was just +0.2°C above normal, and with the canonical El Niño signal for the islands rated weak, the coming rains are expected to arrive broadly on schedule.
98.2 mm vs 122.5 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 running about 20% below the 1991–2020 normal, though this window falls in São Tomé and Príncipe's climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the more meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming rains.
News source25.53°C mean vs 25.3°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window was +0.2°C above normal, a modest warm anomaly consistent with the record global August and second-warmest March reported in the articles rather than with a strong regional El Niño heating signal.
News sourceWith the dry season on schedule and only a weak canonical El Niño signal for the islands, the main wet-season planting window is expected to open broadly on time, though a slightly delayed onset cannot be ruled out if the Pacific event strengthens.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (1.0°, 7.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Cocoa, the dominant export crop, and subsistence food plots should see the main wet season begin broadly on schedule, though a weak El Niño tilt keeps a modest risk of uneven early rains for planting.
Dry-season streamflows and reservoir levels are tracking close to normal, so near-term water availability for the capital and rural communities is not expected to come under significant stress.
Warmer-than-normal conditions and variable early rains could modestly raise the risk of vector-borne disease such as malaria and dengue, alongside heat stress for outdoor workers.
Hydropower output depends on the coming wet season; with rainfall expected near normal, generation should hold steady, but a late onset would tighten the margin in the first quarter of 2027.
A weak El Niño signal implies limited disruption to coastal upwelling and tuna migration patterns, though artisanal fishers should watch for occasional rougher seas and shifted catch distributions.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how São Tomé and Príncipe responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño that coincided with record global temperatures, including the hottest August and second-warmest March cited in current reporting, with only weak rainfall and temperature anomalies registered in the Gulf of Guinea islands.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño that contributed to regional drought and food insecurity in southern and eastern Africa; São Tomé and Príncipe experienced only limited rainfall deficits and no major agricultural crisis.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record, associated with suppressed rainfall and drought stress across parts of equatorial Africa, though São Tomé and Príncipe's island setting buffered it from the worst continental impacts.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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