Comoros
Score moved 2 → 3 . “Comoros sits on the edge of a record El Niño — what it means for the coming rains”
A strengthening El Niño, with global ocean heat at record levels, is expected to unleash multiple hazards across the South-West Indian Ocean region that includes Comoros. Measured conditions for 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall about 8% below normal in what is climatologically the dry season, and temperatures 0.7°C above average, matching the record August warmth reported worldwide. For Comoros the canonical El Niño rainfall signal is weak, so the key watch item is the onset and reliability of the coming rains rather than any dramatic dry-season deficit.
63.3 mm vs 68.6 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 running about 8% below the 1991–2020 normal, though this falls in Comoros' climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming rains rather than the dry-season deficit.
25.7°C mean vs 25.05°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window were about 0.7°C above normal, consistent with the record global warmth reported for August 2026 as a strong El Niño emerged.
News sourceThe main rain-fed planting window is expected to remain broadly on schedule, but a weak canonical El Niño signal for Comoros means the coming rains could be erratic, with the region-wide hazards flagged by WMO posing a moderate risk to crop establishment.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-12.2°, 44.3°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
A weak El Niño signal suggests the coming rains may be erratic, with moderate risk to rain-fed planting of maize, cassava and ylang-ylang, though the season is expected to start broadly on schedule.
Dry-season rainfall running about 8% below normal is not yet critical given sub-20 mm norms, but a delayed or poor rainy season could tighten household and cistern water supplies.
Warmer, wetter transitions favour mosquito-borne disease such as malaria and dengue, and heat stress plus potential nutrition shortfalls pose moderate risks to vulnerable communities.
Above-average temperatures of about 0.7°C raise cooling demand, while any rainfall shortfall would reduce hydropower and reservoir recharge on the islands.
Warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures and rising sea levels around Africa may shift tuna and coastal fish distributions, disrupting small-scale fishing grounds and nearshore catches.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Comoros responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño contributed to global record heat and regional marine heatwaves, with warmer seas and shifting rainfall patterns affecting island agriculture and coastal livelihoods.
unsourced background2015-16
A powerful El Niño coincided with severe regional drought and coral bleaching in the western Indian Ocean, reducing crop yields and pressuring fisheries and water resources in Comoros.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought drought and erratic rains to the South-West Indian Ocean, stressing rain-fed agriculture and water supplies across Comoros and neighbouring islands.
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A strengthening El Niño, with global ocean heat at record levels, is expected to unleash multiple hazards across the South-West Indian Ocean region that includes Comoros. Measured conditions for 9 Jul
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Nearby
Other countries in Eastern Africa