Madagascar
Narrative updated. “Strong El Niño locks in a drier-than-normal rainy season for Madagascar's south”
A strong El Niño, with ONI at +2.16, is expected to suppress rainfall across southern Madagascar during the November–March rainy season, even though the just-ended July–October dry season measured near average. Temperatures over that dry-season window ran about +1.7°C above the 1991–2020 normal, compounding evaporation stress on soils and water points ahead of planting. Humanitarian and government actors are scaling up anticipatory action and trigger systems for the Grand Sud, where a late or failed season would deepen food insecurity through the December–February lean period.
155.6 mm vs 86.1 mm normal
The July–October window is Madagascar's climatological dry season, so the measured near-average rainfall carries little signal; articles instead warn that the coming November–March rains are likely to arrive late and below normal across the south.
News source15.5°C mean vs 13.83°C normal
Mean temperatures over July–October 2026 ran about +1.7°C above the 1991–2020 normal, consistent with the strong El Niño (ONI +2.16) described in the preparedness alerts.
News sourceEl Niño typically makes Madagascar drier. Observed rainfall is running +81% — against the canonical response; local factors are dominating.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-20.0°, 47.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
When it matters
Agricultural calendar for Madagascar and where the El Niño impact window falls
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
A late, below-normal rainy season would delay November–December planting and cut maize, cassava and rice yields in the Grand Sud, with the April–June harvest at risk.
Prolonged heat and suppressed rains are expected to lower river flows, reservoir levels and shallow groundwater, straining already limited rural water points.
Food insecurity and reduced water access are likely to worsen acute malnutrition, while heat stress and waterborne disease risks rise in the south.
Falling hydropower output and higher cooling demand would raise reliance on costly thermal generation and increase load-shedding risk.
Warmer coastal waters and altered currents may shift small pelagic stocks, while drought-driven income losses push more households toward fishing pressure.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Madagascar responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño conditions again coincided with below-normal rains and elevated food insecurity in southern Madagascar, prompting anticipatory action and drought trigger systems.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño contributed to prolonged drought across southern Africa, leaving millions in need of humanitarian assistance in Madagascar and neighbouring countries.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought severe drought and crop failure to southern Madagascar, driving widespread food insecurity in the Grand Sud.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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