Mauritius
Score moved 2 → 3 . “Strong El Niño in the Indian Ocean, but Mauritius' dry season has been wetter and warmer than normal”
WMO and ReliefWeb alerts warn that the strong El Niño now in place will unleash multiple hazards across the South-West Indian Ocean, with southern Africa facing heightened drought and flood risk through the 2026-27 season. For Mauritius, the measured signal is mixed: rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 ran 17% above the 1991–2020 normal in what is climatologically the dry season, while mean temperature was +0.9°C above normal. The coming rains are expected to arrive broadly on schedule, but a strong El Niño raises the odds of a drier second half of the wet season and heat stress on sugarcane and food crops.
109.6 mm vs 93.8 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall 17% above the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October 2026, a window that is climatologically dry for Mauritius, so the meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming rains rather than a percentage in the dry season.
News source23.08°C mean vs 22.14°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window ran +0.9°C above normal, consistent with the background warming described in the 2025 third-warmest-year article and with the heat expected during a strong El Niño.
News sourceThe main rains and the sugarcane and food-crop planting window are expected to start broadly on schedule, but a strong El Niño raises the risk of a drier-than-normal second half of the wet season and heat stress on young cane.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-20.3°, 57.5°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Sugarcane and food-crop planting should start on schedule, but a strong El Niño raises the risk of a drier-than-normal late wet season and heat stress on young cane.
Reservoir recharge depends on the coming rains; a delayed or weak wet season under El Niño could tighten supply later in 2027.
Warmer-than-normal conditions favour vector-borne disease and heat stress, with nutrition risk if the wet season underperforms.
Above-normal temperatures lift cooling demand and hydropower uncertainty, while stronger cyclone risk threatens grid infrastructure.
WMO warns of multiple marine hazards in the South-West Indian Ocean, with warmer seas likely to shift tuna and pelagic stocks and disrupt lagoon fishing.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Mauritius responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
A strong El Niño contributed to global heat records and erratic rainfall in the region, with Mauritius experiencing warmer-than-normal conditions and variable wet-season rains.
unsourced background2015-16
A very strong El Niño coincided with drought across southern Africa and a record cyclone season in the South-West Indian Ocean, with Mauritius facing water restrictions and crop losses.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought drought to southern Africa and a severe cyclone season to the South-West Indian Ocean, straining Mauritian water reserves and sugarcane yields.
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