Réunion
Narrative updated. “WMO flags multiple El Niño hazards for the South-West Indian Ocean as Réunion runs 1.0°C above normal”
The WMO warns that El Niño will unleash multiple hazards across the South-West Indian Ocean region, with Réunion sitting in a weak-signal zone for this event. Measured conditions for 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall at +158% of the 1991–2020 normal, but because this is Réunion's climatological dry season (normally under 20 mm), the figure carries little practical meaning and attention should focus on the coming rains. Mean temperature for the same window ran +1.0°C above normal, and the austral growing season is expected to stay on schedule.
289.1 mm vs 112.1 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall at +158% of the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October 2026, though this window is Réunion's climatological dry season (normally under 20 mm), so the meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming rains rather than a percentage anomaly.
News source19.66°C mean vs 18.65°C normal
Mean temperature for the same window ran +1.0°C above normal, consistent with the WMO's warning that El Niño will unleash multiple hazards across the South-West Indian Ocean region.
News sourceThe austral growing season is expected to proceed on schedule, with the weak El Niño signal for Réunion suggesting limited disruption to planting and harvest timing.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-21.1°, 55.5°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
The growing season is expected to remain on schedule, with the weak El Niño signal limiting likely disruption to sugarcane, vanilla and market-garden production.
Dry-season rainfall is not a meaningful indicator this year, so reservoir and catchment outlooks will hinge on how the coming rains develop.
Warmer-than-normal conditions may raise heat-stress risk and support vector-borne disease activity, with the weak El Niño signal keeping overall risk moderate.
Above-normal temperatures (+1.0°C) are likely to nudge up cooling demand, while hydropower output depends on the coming wet season.
WMO's regional hazard warning suggests possible shifts in tuna and pelagic distribution around Réunion, though the weak local signal implies limited impact.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Réunion responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
El Niño contributed to regional heat and rainfall anomalies in the South-West Indian Ocean, though Réunion's local signal remained comparatively weak.
unsourced background2015-16
One of the strongest El Niño events on record produced regional drought stress and coral bleaching across the South-West Indian Ocean, with Réunion experiencing warmer-than-normal conditions.
unsourced background1997-98
Strong El Niño brought notable rainfall variability and tropical cyclone activity to the South-West Indian Ocean, affecting Réunion's agriculture and water resources.
unsourced backgroundNearby
Other countries in Eastern Africa