Seychelles
Score moved 3 → 4 (minimal impact → moderate impact). “Seychelles' dry season just ran at double normal rainfall — what that means for the coming rains”
Seychelles is bracing for increased rainfall as the strong El Niño in the equatorial Pacific strengthens, with the Seychelles News Agency reporting that authorities expect a wetter-than-usual season ahead. Reanalysis for 9 July–6 October 2026 shows rainfall at roughly +105% of the 1991–2020 normal, though this is the climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the real signal is a wetter-than-usual run-up to the coming rains rather than a dramatic absolute anomaly. Mean temperatures over the same window ran about +1.0°C above normal, and WMO and Indian Ocean analyses warn that a warm ocean will keep driving heavy-rain and coastal-surge hazards across the South-West Indian Ocean islands.
449.1 mm vs 219 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall for 9 July–6 October 2026 at roughly double the 1991–2020 normal (+105%), although this window falls in Seychelles' climatological dry season when totals are normally under 20 mm, so the meaningful signal is the wetter-than-usual start to the coming rains.
News source27.19°C mean vs 26.19°C normal
Mean temperatures over the same window ran about 1.0°C above normal, consistent with the warm-phase background described in the articles.
News sourceWith the dry season wetter than normal and the coming rains expected to arrive on schedule or slightly enhanced, planting windows for root crops and vegetables should not be delayed, though waterlogged soils and fungal pressure are the main risks.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (-4.6°, 55.7°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
Wetter-than-normal conditions should support root crops and vegetables, but waterlogged soils and fungal disease pressure are the main risks for growers.
Reservoir and catchment recharge is likely to improve, easing dry-season stress, though heavy downpours could bring flash flooding and turbidity in supply intakes.
Warmer, wetter conditions raise the likelihood of vector-borne disease such as dengue and chikungunya, alongside heat stress and possible waterborne illness after flooding.
Above-normal rainfall should benefit hydropower and reduce pumping costs, but storm-related outages and grid damage remain a risk during intense events.
Warm ocean anomalies may shift tuna and pelagic distributions and disrupt artisanal fishing days, while heavier runoff can affect nearshore water quality.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Seychelles responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
The 2023-24 El Niño amplified record sea level surges in African marine domains, including the western Indian Ocean, increasing coastal inundation risk for island states such as Seychelles.
Source2015-16
A very strong El Niño coincided with widespread coral bleaching across the Indian Ocean and variable rainfall in the Seychelles region, stressing reefs and coastal fisheries.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record brought exceptional warming to the western Indian Ocean, with Seychelles and neighbouring islands experiencing coral bleaching and disrupted rainfall patterns.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
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