Cape Verde
Score moved 2 → 3 . “A 'super' El Niño is building, but Cape Verde's rain signal stays weak — here's what that means for the islands”
The supplied articles describe a strengthening, possibly 'super' El Niño through 2026, with one report flagging the rare possibility of a simultaneous Atlantic La Niña. For Cape Verde the canonical El Niño signal is weak, and measured conditions for 9 July–6 October 2026 show rainfall 18% below the 1991–2020 normal in what is climatologically the dry season, alongside temperatures +1.1°C above normal. The key question is therefore the coming rainy season, which is expected to start on schedule unless the Atlantic pattern described in the articles disrupts rainfall timing.
83.5 mm vs 102.5 mm normal
Reanalysis shows rainfall 18% below the 1991–2020 normal for 9 July–6 October 2026, a window that falls in Cape Verde's climatological dry season, so the meaningful signal is the outlook for the coming rains rather than a dry-season percentage.
News source26.79°C mean vs 25.7°C normal
Mean temperatures for the same window ran +1.1°C above normal, consistent with the strong El Niño background described in the supplied articles.
News sourceWith the rainy season still ahead, the El Niño signal for Cape Verde remains weak, so planting is expected to proceed on schedule unless the Atlantic La Niña pattern flagged in the articles shifts rainfall timing.
NASA POWER (MERRA-2) reanalysis, 9 Jul 2026 – 6 Oct 2026, sampled at the country centroid (16.0°, -24.0°). Normals are 1991–2020. How this is computed
Last 12 months vs normal
Observed monthly rainfall against the 1991–2020 climatology
Sector by sector
With the rainy season still ahead and the El Niño signal weak, planting is expected on schedule, though a delayed or shortened wet season would pressure rain-fed maize and beans.
Reservoirs and groundwater recharge depend on the coming rains; the dry-season window shows no meaningful rainfall anomaly, so water security hinges on how the wet season develops.
Warmer-than-normal conditions raise heat stress risk, and rainfall variability can affect water quality and vector-borne disease patterns in the months ahead.
Above-normal temperatures (+1.1°C) are likely to lift cooling demand, while rainfall variability affects the island's limited hydropower and reservoir-dependent supply.
Warming Atlantic waters and any shift toward the rare Atlantic La Niña pattern described in the articles could displace pelagic stocks that underpin Cape Verde's tuna and small-scale fisheries.
What happened last time
Past El Niño episodes and how Cape Verde responded. See the full ENSO timeline →
2023-24
Recent strong El Niño period; global temperature records were set, consistent with the above-normal warmth measured for Cape Verde in the current window.
unsourced background2015-16
Strong El Niño coincided with drought stress across parts of West Africa and the Sahel, though Cape Verde's island rainfall response remained muted and variable.
unsourced background1997-98
One of the strongest El Niño events on record; Cape Verde's canonical signal is weak, with rainfall and crop outcomes varying more with Atlantic than Pacific conditions.
unsourced backgroundLatest coverage
RSSWhat is the El Nino phenomenon?
Super El Niño Builds, But Cape Verde's Rain Signal Stays Weak
The supplied articles describe a strengthening, possibly 'super' El Niño through 2026, with one report flagging the rare possibility of a simultaneous Atlantic La Niña. For Cape Verde the canonical El
2026 North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook
‘Rare’ La Niña may form in the Atlantic at the same time as this year’s ‘super’ El Niño
August 21, 2026 Friday Tropical Atlantic Update
Nearby
Other countries in Western Africa